All topics

Crime

Is it really worse than ever?

“Crime is out of control in every big city.”

"Crime is rising to unmanageable levels in every major city."

What's actually true

That’s too broad: crime trends differ by city, neighborhood, and type of offense. FBI data show reported violent crime fell nationally in 2023 and 2024. New York City, for example, recorded fewer murders and shootings in 2024 than in 2023. Those declines don’t mean every crime fell or every neighborhood is safe, but they contradict the picture of universal deterioration.

Where they have a point

Some neighborhoods still face serious violence, and citywide improvements don’t erase someone’s experience of being victimized or feeling unsafe.

Say this (15 seconds)

Some neighborhoods really are struggling. But ‘every big city’ doesn’t fit the numbers: violent crime fell nationally, and New York had fewer murders and shootings. It matters which city and which crime we’re talking about.

Then ask

Is there a particular city or kind of crime you’re most worried about?

Sources

Pass the gravy (exit line)

We both want people to feel safe. Meanwhile, can you safely pass me the potatoes?

“Defunding the police caused crime to skyrocket.”

"Cuts to police funding caused a sharp rise in crime."

What's actually true

The rise in homicides in 2020 was real, but crime did not rise uniformly across categories or cities. Some cities cut police budgets, but many did not—and violence rose in places that kept or increased funding, too. The timing alone doesn't establish that 'defunding' caused the increase; pandemic-era disruptions and other possible causes also need to be considered.

Where they have a point

It's reasonable to worry that cutting essential staffing or investigative capacity could hurt public safety. Whether a particular cut did harm is a question worth examining—not something we can settle from a slogan.

Say this (15 seconds)

The murder spike was real, and I understand the concern. But violence also rose in cities that didn't cut police funding. So 'defunding caused it' is a much stronger claim than the evidence supports.

Then ask

Is there a particular city you're thinking of where we could look at the budget and crime trends together?

Sources

Pass the gravy (exit line)

We probably won't solve city budgets before dessert. Who wants pie?