The economy & prices — Talking Turkey

“Prices are high because of the President's policies.”

"Your relative is saying the president’s policies are responsible for today’s high prices."

What's actually true

Presidential policies can affect prices, but blaming high prices entirely on the president leaves out other major causes. Prices also respond to supply disruptions, energy costs, consumer demand, and interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, which makes those decisions independently of the White House. Policies such as tariffs or increased government spending can add inflation pressure, depending on their design and economic conditions. And when inflation slows, prices generally rise more slowly—they don’t necessarily return to their old levels.

Where they have a point

The cost-of-living squeeze is real, and it’s fair to hold presidents accountable for policies that make it better or worse. The important distinction is between contributing to high prices and being responsible for all of them.

Say this (15 seconds)

Presidents can make prices better or worse, so policy matters. But supply problems, energy costs, and demand matter too. And slower inflation doesn’t mean the grocery bill goes back to what it used to be.

Then ask

Which policy do you think has had the biggest effect on the prices you’re noticing?

Sources

Pass the gravy (exit line)

We can agree groceries shouldn’t feel like a luxury purchase. Speaking of groceries—who made this pie?

“The economy was way better under Trump.”

"Your relative believes the economy was substantially better when Trump was president."

What's actually true

If you mean Trump’s first term, the pre-pandemic economy had low unemployment and low inflation, continuing an expansion that began before he took office. COVID then caused a severe recession and job losses, so comparing entire terms is different from comparing the years before COVID. Inflation surged in 2021–22, leaving households facing higher prices, even as jobs recovered and unemployment returned to very low levels. So ‘way better’ depends on the measure—and presidents don’t control the economy single-handedly.

Where they have a point

The affordability concern is real: lower inflation doesn’t mean prices go back down. Someone whose pay hasn’t kept up can reasonably feel worse off, even when national economic indicators look healthy.

Say this (15 seconds)

You’re right that prices were lower before COVID. But the jobs picture recovered strongly afterward, too. I’d separate ‘things cost less’ from ‘the whole economy was better’—and neither president controlled all of it.

Then ask

When you say better, are you mostly thinking about grocery bills, paychecks, jobs, or something else?

Sources

Pass the gravy (exit line)

Anyway, before we turn dinner into an economics seminar—who wants more potatoes?

“Inflation is all because of government spending on handouts.”

"Your relative attributes inflation entirely to government spending on financial assistance."

What's actually true

Government relief spending contributed to the pandemic-era inflation surge by supporting demand while supplies were constrained. But it wasn’t the only cause: supply-chain disruptions, shifts in what people bought, and energy and food shocks also pushed prices up. Inflation rose across many countries, and economists disagree about how much weight to give each factor.

Where they have a point

There’s a real concern here: government spending can worsen inflation when demand outruns what the economy can supply. Helping people through a crisis doesn’t make that trade-off disappear.

Say this (15 seconds)

Government relief spending did contribute, but it wasn’t the whole story. Supply shortages and energy shocks pushed prices up too, including overseas. We can question how much was spent without blaming every price increase on relief checks.

Then ask

How would you separate the effect of relief spending from shortages and rising energy costs?

Sources

Pass the gravy (exit line)

Anyway, before we try to fix the whole economy, who wants more potatoes?